Archives for October 2023

Monday October 30, 2023

The Republicans have traded in a not too bright Speaker for what? Let’s take a look. They rejected an extremist election denying firebrand for a weird milquetoast one. What do we know about the new Speaker Mike Johnson? Well, he ran uncontested. As far as I can tell he has only gotten passed one piece of legislation – an act to make a U.S. Marine coin. The rest of his stuff is either in committee, or passed to the Senate (“crossed over”) and a bunch of “Resolutions” mainly about right wing agenda stuff. He also has an adopted black son whom he does not allow to be in pictures with the family and is fourteen years younger than the Congressman. It’s weird. Maybe, it’s a good thing that he took this kid in, but then to not acknowledge publicly in photos etc.? The relationship is weird.

After the Lewiston Maine shooting Mike said guns weren’t the problem it was what was in our hearts. Okay. Let’s run with that. What are you going to do about it? What? The hearts. Ya see, Mike, some of those hearts must be evil – right? So what ya gonna do about it?

Let’s leave that there for a second and look at the Republican political campaign ads here in Virginia. There are several types:

– The other person is bad because they are: soft on crime, support something evil, the economy is bad, they haven’t done anything.

Don’t vote for them.

– Vote for so and so because they stand with Governor Youngkin and together we’ll get stuff done (smile).

– A fifteen week abortion ban is not an abortion ban and it’s something we can live with. Besides, a percentage over 50 is okay with it.

A few questions I have for the Republican ads:

1. Same old attack ads. Nothing new. Nothing specific. You can do better. And why do you hide your deplorable objectives behind high sounding names? Is it because if you called them what they really are no one would want you in office?

2. As for working with the Governor, what exactly has the Governor done to help us so far? I can think of a lot of bad stuff, but nothing positive. What exactly is never made clear. However, in Democratic ads they point out that mostly what these candidates want to get done is ban all abortions, move money out of public schools to private ones, make sure everyone can own a gun, and step on the poor, minorities, immigrants, and women.

3. A fifteen week abortion ban huh? Are you doctors? Are you God? Then what business is it of yours? Why not get rid of the ban all together and let the woman decide along with her doctors and her god? Just throwing it out there to consider.

Now, let’s return to Mike Johnson and the guns aren’t the problem it’s what’s in our hearts. Once again I have to ask: are you a doctor or god? Because if you aren’t how’s this heart thing gonna work?

Okay, time for fun with math.

We are at the end of October that is we are ten months through a twelve month year or 10/12 = 83.3%

There are 400,000 AR-15s currently in the U.S.

Mass shootings this year are either 36 or 566 depending on whose number you take. That’s:

566/400,000 = .1415%

36/400,000 = .009%

So we should finish out the year with 679 or 43.2 mass shootings.

Recall ratios? Here ya go:

(566*100)/83.3=679

(36*100)/83.3 = 43.2

Okay, so I propose a new Republican political ad – nationwide.

AR-15s used in mass shootings are under one tenth of one percent of all AR-15s owned in our great country. That’s only 43 for the year. It’s a number we can live with.

Or

AR-15s used in mass shootings are under one tenth of one percent of all AR-15s owned in our great country. Isn’t that worth it to protect our gun rights?

Moving on. Hours before the gunman in Lewiston Maine began firing the Senate passed a bill making it easier for mentally incompetent Veterans to get guns. There have been many veteran suicides. This bill will allow them easier access to do so.

The other day the Senate actually passed gun legislation that would help curb gun violence. It’s not much, but it’s something. This on the same day that the Supreme Court ruled the Constitution said the Second Amendment allows people to carry guns outside the home. You know I used to think that judges could read and comprehend what they read. Earl Warren warned about the Second Amendment being twisted by the manufacturers of guns and they have once again succeeded. I know the Second Amendment is not the most clearly worded piece of writing but if you can read a sentence you can figure it out. Bear in mind that the version passed by Congress uses two commas and various states passed versions with only one comma, and it was either the first or second comma or no commas…and and different words are capitalized. But if you take the time to read the sentence it is clear that this amendment only applies to “A well regulated militia.” So I would posit the question, “Are you a well regulated militia? No? Gimme your AR-15.”

It’s not like we haven’t run into this kind of thing before. The Thompson submachine gun was so prevalent that we finally regulated them. Of course, it took lining a bunch of mobsters up against a wall and shooting them in the back to do it. Now 18 dead in Maine, 60 in Las Vegas, etc. Are we at a critical mass? Have we had enough? Or is it a number we can live with?

Saturday, October 28, 2023

I have had a lot of thoughts about the gunman in Lewiston, Maine and the process we as a society go through to protect, prevent, and identify these kind of potential problems. I don’t want to call them threats, though I almost did, because – well, I hope you’ll understand why by the end of this piece.

First off, I was surprised by the fact that much attention was paid after the shooting to the wide range of resources being called up and people being notified, but nowhere in all those announcements was there any mention to the shooter of a number to call or means to get in contact with someone or some agency if he or she wished to surrender.

I heard that typically in such a case either it ends quickly in death via suicide or shootout, or the individual “goes to the ground” and hides out until they feel it safe to reappear and either try to escape detection or to kill again.

There are two statistics I wish to mention. Well, actually one and one speculative percentage. I heard that the number of AR-15 style weapons now in this country is 400,000. Up from 200,000 a short time ago. The other tidbit I heard was the comment “95% of gun owners are responsible…”

Okay, let’s breakdown what that means potentially for this country and law enforcement. If 95% of gun owners are responsible that would mean 5% are not. We can argue percentages later, but let’s go with that for the moment. If we accept the number of 400,000 AR-15s as being the total number of those weapons in the hands of the citizenry, then that means there are 20,000 potential maniacs with this weapon.

I would like to point out, once again, that the first piece of legislation passed by the Trump administration was to allow mentally impaired people to buy and own guns. 

Depending on which news report I listened to, there have been either 566 mass shooting this year in this country or 36. Is either number acceptable? Is this what gun advocates claim is the price of freedom?

Several other interesting facts emerged from this incident. One, the person was known to have mental issues. Yet, he was legally allowed to have weapons. What’s the rationale here? That he could protect himself from the nonexistent demons that he saw? That he had a right to take vengeance on people he thought had wronged him?

The other interesting tidbit was that uniformed police officers responded to the first shooting location within four minutes of the 911 call and that detectives (ie not uniformed officers) were at a nearby shooting range. They heard the call on the radio and were at the scene within 90 seconds with guns drawn – and they were too late. The shooter had gone.

So to sum up and conclude to this point:

1. There are more AR-15s in circulation now than there were ten years ago. If the percentage of violent assaults per number of guns in circulation stays constant then we should expect more shootings like this and the statistics bear this out. Some are saying it is no longer that there is a mass shooting here or there but that it is now a constant, a way of life, never ending.

I will ask, “Is this what we want?” The overwhelming statistic says, “No.” There are statistics which point to overwhelming percentages of folks that want better gun laws. Those efforts keep getting stymied and defeated in legislatures. I wonder how many Congressional people are walking into Congress today with that AR-15 pin on their lapel?

One person has changed their mind. That’s Jared Golden, He’s the congressman from Lewiston where the shooting took place and the district he represents. I am familiar with Representative Golden as I have a home in Maine and have received mailers and appeals from him and heard his ads on local Maine TV. He’s a democrat, but you’d be hard pressed to know it from his ads. He always supported gun ownership or danced around the idea of infringing on the rights of gun owners. That is to say he was for “responsible gun ownership and protecting the second amendment right to bear arms.” I am loosely quoting the usual line used by politicians who don’t want to do anything in this regard and their justification for inaction. 

Not anymore, Golden now says we need to ban AR-15 style weapons.

That’s one vote that has changed. I wonder if anymore have decided that enough is enough? Does every no vote need a mass shooting in their district to persuade them? 

When I first went to work it was 1973. I was at a factory in Baltimore. There were a handful of programmers there. It was all COBOL and IBM. Some of these folks had worked at the biggest and most respected computer installation in the country – Social Security. At that time, Social Security was the gold standard for accuracy and the use of big data. I remember one of those folks saying, time ad time again, “You know what it means when your test data went through without an error? It means your test data went through without an error.” The point being that just because you had no errors in your test case did not mean you wouldn’t have trouble with the real stuff.

I think it’s time to realize that some make an argument for rights of people to possess firearms, but at the number of people and firearms has increased so will the incidents of tragedy. Is this acceptable? 

There’s something about this incident that feels different. Maybe, it’s a turning point. Maybe, I’ve thought that before. Maybe, it’s time for our politicians to stand up and say that they’ve actually read the whole second amendment and surprise, surprise, it doesn’t mean any idiot can own a machine gun style weapon.

Maybe, it’s time for someone to say, “You know what? Maybe, we should get rid of the stuff that was put in the Constitution for slave owners to be able to harass and kill runaway slaves?” (Too much? History. Yeah. I know.)

Then there is the mental illness argument and how that’s the problem. Huh? Well, okay. Just remember that he was seen to be a mental problem by his family and fellow workers and it was reported! But then again with a law saying mentally challenged people can own guns I’m not sure what could have been done. Oh that’s right, Maine has a “yellow flag” law. That means you’ve got to get some psychiatrist or some such to sign off before any action will be taken. I wonder if folks are thinking. “Maybe, that doesn’t work so well?”

On a lighter note – the woman doing the signing at the Lewiston press conferences – OMG! While everyone else was being somber and grim she’s up there making faces and gesticulating like crazy. Was she signing? I don’t know. At time she seemed to be talking with her face, sorry “gesticulating”? “signing?” whatever, about penis size.

That and she kept making the capital “L” sign. “L” as in “Loser.” 

I am, of course, wondering what Saturday Night Live will do with this. I think they will lead off the show with Sarah Silverman as the gesticulator (that’s a word? Huh, who knew? I thought I had made it up.) Who will play the governor? It’s got to be one of the two blonds. I’m betting on Heidi Gardiner.

Okay, this is the way I see the skit.

Cold open to the press room. 

Mikey Day plays the news man reporting from the scene.

Mikey: (in a hushed tone) We are awaiting the press conference to begin.

Announcer (off camera): “And now ladies and gentlemen the Governor of Maine.”

Governor files in, stands behind podium. Sign person beside them.

Governor: “The shooter has been found.”

Gesticulator makes signs including the Hawaiian “hang loose” sign given horizontally and the Kiwi rugby tongue out of mouth sign.

Governor: “And I’d like to report that the shooter is no longer a threat to the community.”

Gesticulator gives “L” loser sign with Kiwi tongue out sign and makes a horizontal sweeping motion with the “hang-loose” sign and her horizontal sweep ends with her pinkie in the governor’s eye. The governor grabs her face and falls down. The gesticulator signs what happened by poking herself in the eye and she goes down as well.

Mikey Day comes back with “Well as you can see …”

All three crowd the screen with “Live from New York. It’s Saturday Night!”

Watch for it. And remember.

You heard it here first.

Thursday, October 26, 2023

I’ve been mulling over the news out of Lewiston, Maine.

A shooter killed 15 or 22 people and some 50 or 60 are injured.

The suspect is still at large.

Two comments gave me pause:

1. The suspect has a history of mental illness

2. The ATF is combing through records, but they aren’t on a computer. They are on paper.

Let us remember that the first bill The Trump Administration passed was to allow mentally incompetent people to have firearms.

Also, let us remember that the NRA waged a successful campaign to not allow the ATF to store gun records on a computer. They had to be kept on paper. This meant that most background checks would not be completed in time, and whoever was wanting a firearm would get it.

Meanwhile, in Washington DC a man who denies that Biden is President is now Speaker of the House. He also is against abortion – period. Rape? Incest? Too bad. God’s will. He also wants to curtail Social Security and Medicare. (I’ve never understood that argument. But I can tell you Senators like Ron Johnson think so too.)

So if you are a Trump supporting, gun toting, or just a Republican expect more mass shootings, no government, no Social security and unwanted pregnancies. Remember the big crime drop in the late 80s/early 90s? Rudy took credit for it in NYC and the LA police chief did too. There is more evidence to support the idea that Roe being made the law of the land in 1973, which led to fewer unwanted pregnancies and hence fewer aimless un-nurtured youth 18 to 20 years later that got into trouble, played the more significant role than anything those politicians and police chiefs did. So look for crime to go up in 18 to 20 years, now that women and girls are being forced through law and circumstance to have children they can’t care for.

We know how to solve all these situations. That is the sad thing.

Oh, and did you like Kevin McCarthy blaming Democrats for the Republicans not being able to elect a speaker? This follows the Republican “two Santa” strategy, which is spend like drunken sailors when they are in power and refuse to spend when Dems are in charge. This in response to what they perceived when FDR was President that the Dems were thought to be Santa Claus with the goodies. So they were going to become Santa, and besmirch the other Santa.

How’s that working out for us?

To quote, Virginia Foxx* “Shut Up.”

* I consider Ms. Foxx to be the dumbest person in the House. She is only seen in photo-ops, as she was last night and quoted as above when a reporter asked a question based on – god forbid – fact.

Sunday, October 22, 2023

I’ve been mulling over the above question in regard to Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX. I’ve finished Michael Lewis’ book Going Infinite. Also, I keep thinking about what Lewis said on 60 Minutes – that in the case of Sam Bankman-Fried each side will be telling a different story and that he, Lewis, had another story and his was the more interesting. Ah yes, and I have a conclusion, which I’m sure won’t happen, but would be the most just.

Okay, let’s review the arguments:

#1 He’s a criminal mastermind. He stole customers’ money. 

#2 He’s a hapless dude. He wasn’t paying attention to the fact that he was running out of money or that he was taking customers’ money. He was too busy being an altruist.

Okay there are justifications or arguments for both:

A. “How can you lose $8 billion and not know it?”

B. He told co-workers to build a backdoor so money could be taken from customers.

C. The guy had no and I mean zero managerial skills. there were no controls financially. None of the people were equipped or knowledgeable about how to run a business.

Okay. That’s about the sum total of the arguments. The rest is salacious or stupid BS.

So I ask, “Who’s guilty?”

I say – Everyone.

And – no one.

What should we (or the judge) do?

Everyone involved deserves a spanking and should be sent home rubbing their fannies and told to “think about what they’ve done.” And threatened “to never do it again.”

Why do I say this? Consider the fact that many people, okay, everyone trusted Sam. Yet, they knew he was not doing anything to protect or control anything. What? How can you let someone like that run the show? Who’s guilty here? Everyone. How about the people who got millions and billions from Sam? Isn’t that ill-gotten gains? I mean if you get money from a bank robbery you have to give it back and or you are charged with accepting stolen goods. Well, how many of the people who got some of Sam’s largess have ponied up and given back? I think it’s zero. Maybe, they need a little nudge, like a warrant and threat of fifty years in jail? Sorry, Tom and Shaq and that guy in Hong Kong you received from someone who’s money wasn’t his. You didn’t know? What say us now? Too bad? How could you not know? etc. 

And it turns out that the bankruptcy trustee has filed a new motion in court saying 90% of the money was there. In other words, Sam did not lose the money. He just didn’t know where it was. Thus supporting the helpless dude case.

So did Sam break the law? Yeah, well, maybe. But also he may not have known or was not paying attention, or didn’t have the capacity to know. Whatever. Should he go to jail? Does anyone else deserve to go to jail? Hum. I’d say what we need in this case is an adult to come in and spank everyone. How could they be that gullible? Trusting? and Stupid? Answer – Easy. Happens all the time. 

I contend that we give Sam parole and make him assistant to Elizabeth Warren and a new commission to regulate crypto and crypto futures so this does not and can not happen again.

One thing Lewis’ book does not address and all this leaves as an open question is “Crypto? WTF?”

I’ve read the paper by the Japanese guy whom nobody knows and listened to the pale white guy who has been coding in his basement for ten years (Etherium) and I don’t understand it. Is it something? Or is it a pile of sand? I don’t know. That’s a discussion for another day.

*What? You believed that? How gullible are you? They are Mayan ruins.

PS Lewis has said that Taylor Swift was willing to take the $25-40 million offered, but Sam never got around to okaying it. Thus shooting down this as an example of Tay-Tay smart business woman, but supporting the hapless dude arg.

Wednesday, October 18, 2023

What does it all mean Mr. Natural? (It don’t mean sh*t.)

R. Crumb 

I’ve written about the two economies. That is the world of high finance and the regular day to day world.

While the finance guys like Jamie Diamond keep saying a recession is coming the regular world keep posting numbers and statistics saying, “Not now.”

The latest round of this is an indicator of a recession being right on the horizon – The Inverted Yield Curve.

The Inverted Yield Curve is looking at the price of treasury bonds. You can buy those bonds for a few months or a few years. The Fed uses those bonds to take money out of the economy. By doing so the economic models predict people will have less money to spend and therefore stop spending and prices, or at least the pressure to increase prices will slow. That is, inflation should lessen. Typically, the price of long term bonds is higher than those of a shorter term, which makes sense. Why would you invest your money for a longer time to make less?

Every once in awhile things get screwed up and the rate of return is higher on short term bonds than on long term – that is called “An Inverted Yield Curve.” It shouldn’t happen say the economists. But it does says the finance guys. What does it mean? Ah, Grasshopper, it means that people are concerned about the economy long term, but not short term. In other words, a turndown is coming.

Okay, that’s the standard pitch.

Gordon Klepper went to a Trump rally this week. He’s a reporter for The Daily Show. His schtick is to go to a rally, agree with the person and then point out a fact that contradicts what the person has claimed they support. In his latest foray one person claimed they didn’t like Biden because the price of eggs and gas has gone up. I’d say those are good economic indicators for the average person. Unfortunately, for this person they seem to forget that at one point there were no eggs to be had and the price of gas was near $4 a gallon. That was when the Biden haters were putting stickers near the pump handles saying things like Thank President Biden for This. When the price started to come down they had to go back and rip them stickers off.

Eggs became available and gas prices went down. Maybe they are now going up with regular old inflation? (Wait, I just saw gas going down again. Hum.) I saw a report from one of those right wing “conservative” economic pundits (They prefer Trump, but hate Biden. However, when Trump was in they hated everyone. They like Robert Kennedy – if and when he comments to them.) But this report I saw asked What’s going on with the inverted yield curve? This they said has always been a rock solid way to predict a recession. Yet, no recession is seen near term. What gives? They ask. Their answer? Ah, me, they say, sometimes an inverted yield curve is a false indicator. Don’t trust one indicator. This from the conservative right wing economic guys!

What? Are you kidding me? Where’s Jamie Diamond? Hey, isn’t an Inverted Yield Curve ALWAYS an indicator of a recession? Yup. Where is it? Where is what? The recession? Don’t worry it’s coming. Worry? Listen you said it’s always an indicator. Yup. Where is it? Where is what? The recession? I gotta go to the bathroom. 

Okay, so here’s an interesting little factoid. Consumer spending hasn’t slowed. So that means the recession isn’t here.

Is it coming? Well, yeah. Some day. But there’s no real indication that it is here.

I think what we are witnessing is the Fed has not been able to reign in the economy and they raised rates to try and do it. So far it hasn’t worked. What does this mean? I think it means the economy is doing quite well, thank you very much.

But wait? People don’t want to work – you say. Look at all the restaurants that can’t find workers. Hum. Good point. Let me ask what you – what do restaurants pay? (Answer – not much.) Let me also ask – how come people that do pay well aren’t having any problem filling most of their jobs? How come unemployment is down? Hum. Seems to me that businesses are bemoaning the fact that they might actually have to pay people enough that they would want to take one of their crappy jobs.

Okay. Okay. What should you do about the inverted yield curve and your money, etc.? If you have money, move some to cash or cash equivalents. Invest in companies that are bound to be around if and when a turndown occurs.

Will a recession come? Maybe, but in the real world there’s little sign of it. Will a turn down happen? Yes. Economies run in cycles. Duh. How bad it will be is hard to say but there’s little sign that it will be really bad. However, keep some cash around. (It would be really nice if the bankers and finance folk actually tried to invest in making the economy better. Think Richard Gere in the end of Pretty Woman.)

In other news – Tay Tay. Jenny Bush reported taking her daughters to see The Eras Tour movie. It is on track to be one of the biggest pre-sales of all time at just under $100 million. Jenny reported that the moment Taylor started singing every twelve year old girl in the place rushed the screen and danced to every number. They knew all the moves! They did this for the whole movie. And as one of the Daily Show reporters who covered the opening one young lady said it was the biggest single event of all time. Then she said she was coming back the next day. 

The rush the screen report reminded me of hearing about the Beatles when they toured or when I saw Janis at the old Baltimore Civic Center. Or a Grateful Dead concert. Okay, the Dead fans don’t rush the stage they stand up, light up, and dance in place.

Somethings never change. Except when they do. (Hey. There’s the morale of the story.)

Went to see Frozen the musical last night. I didn’t really know the plot. Actually, the plot is nonsensical enough to be an opera. Except, in an opera the woman dies. The audience was littered with little girls dressed up as Elsa. Even more than Dorothies when the Wizard of Oz played. Apparently, the Sunday matinee was awash in princesses. Fathers brought their daughters which made for interesting antics near the Men’s room door. All in all it was a good show and some of the effects were spectacular.