Friday June 19, 2020
135 Days until the election on November 3rd
215 Days until the Inauguration on January 20, 2021
John Bolton has a new book and there’s lots of talk about what’s in it. Yeah, well, who cares? He had his chance and he blew it. What did you expect? He’s a coward. I remember when I first heard of him. He was making stupid statements that the right loved. Remember the one about cleaning off the two top floors of the U.N. and nothing would be lost? Yeah, at that time he was considered to be kind of nutty. Smart maybe, but nutty. He hasn’t changed only our perception of him. Stuff has moved so far to the right that he now seems main stream to some. But he’s still nutty and he’s still a coward.
He’s the kid on the playground that is hanging around the action, never part of the real action. He’s goading others to fight. He’s talking behind people’s backs, trying to get them to do something sinister. He hasn’t changed. Look what was reported about him at least three times during the impeachment hearings – he told others to go to the lawyers. He let his deputy assistant testify. He didn’t.
Okay on to the stock market, Stevo, and all that. I was trying understand something about how economies work and I asked a friend about it. I thought it an econ 101 question; he thought it more graduate level – econ 330. The question was, “How does money get into the economy?” And this is central I believe to what’s going on in the stock market.
Another friend sent me an article about the Fed and how they are now buying up new kinds of debt. Debt they have never bought up before. I think this is central to why the stock market is going up.
All this started when I began to expelling to another friend how the Fed controls the money supply in the economy. It was then that I realized I didn’t know how those newly printed bills that Steve and his wife Elvira were holding up with his name on them, how they get into the economy. Yes, I understand that banks could swap old bills for new ones but that doesn’t increase the actual dollars in the system.
And I understand that the Fed can issue bonds and that the better the rate the more people will want them and this will take dollars out of the system. And I understand that by creating credit cards allows people to have more money available and the Fed can’t really control that. (That btw is one of the really neat things to understand. Credit cards and borrowing limits is a way to create money in the sense that people can use those credit cards to buy goods and services, which in turn stimulates the economy. More on this idea with Robert Gates and soft power- later.)
So why is the stock market going up? I mean it should be going down. We are in a pandemic. The economy is being throttled by a pandemic. People are out of work and yet the stock market is going up.
Ah Grasshopper. Why you ask? I’ll tell you why.
There are several things to realize:
1 – Remember stag-elation? That started with Nixon, then Ford (WIN? Whip Inflation Now?), and finally Carter. It was the fact that prices kept going up which indicated their was excess money in the economic system. To take money out of the system the Fed kept increasing the rates of the bonds they sold. Mortgage rates were over 15%. Yet, prices kept going up. Why? I asked a friend. He said that their was money that was unaccounted for that kept being coughed up to take advantage of the high interest rates on the bonds, etc. He didn’t put it in such economic terms; he said that there was a lot of money in mattresses. I said but that seemed crazy because it (the stagflation, the rising rates) had gone up for so long. He said, “The mattresses were thicker than anyone thought.”
Moral – The economy is a big slower than you think beast.
2 – The problem with politicians trying to fix the economy is that they do too little too late, which economist after economist has pointed out actually makes the problem worse. By the time politicians get around to fixing things typically whatever they thought they should be doing just the opposite is usually true. So they keep adding fuel to the fire. This is a universal statement, not pointing at just our Congress.
Our Congress has been particularly inept at doing much of anything. This Robert Gates points out is a threat to our security. If we can’t fix our own problems than maybe our system of government isn’t the way to go? Is how people around the world can view us.
With Trump’s behavior in terms of aligning himself with White Supremacists, with his advancing his own political fortunes at the expense of the country’s interests, with his lining his own pocket and those of his pals – it is easy for an autocrat to say, “See, you’re no better than us.” This is a threat to our way of life.
As Bolton’s book points out Trump is easily manipulated by other leaders around the world; be it Putin in Russia, Jinping in China, Kim in North Korea. They know they can manipulate him. Jared is also easily manipulated – for example by MBS in Saudi Arabia. This lead to the killing of Khashoggi, but they knew Donald would do nothing as well because that was the first trip he took as president.
So how does all this play into to rise in the stock market? Two things, maybe more, but two new things. Remember that half trillion Mnuchin got to spend anyway he wanted? That was to help small businesses and revive the economy, remember that? It wasn’t that long ago. So that’s 500 billion or 500 thousands of millions, or 500,000 millions. Wouldn’t that revive the economy if it was put into small businesses? You would think so. At least, it would be a big shot in the arm, right? I mean even if you gave a million to 500,000 people randomly that would help, right? So where did it go?
It would seem to me that Trump and Mnuchin would be crowing about how that money has helped revive the economy. I mean at least as much as Paul Ryan saying the tax cuts, which gave millions and billions to the rich, helped some woman afford the annual fee at Costco (or was it Sam’s Club?)
But they haven’t been talking. No crowing. No chest puffery, no twitting, no long rambling nonsensical explanations from Mnuchin, something I’ve come to learn is his specialty. Why?
Well, others have asked that question too. Seems these folks have the silly idea that because this is money on the American people’s dime they have a right to know. By law they are correct. Of course Trump and Mnuchin could care less about that. However, a few bits and pieces have been pried out of some SEC filings. Turns out money has been funneled into “Street Names.” Those are the stock trading names that brokerage accounts and hedge funds use to trade and sell stocks. In other words, the money didn’t go to the pizza shop, or the car garage, or the barber shop, or the neighborhood restaurant – it went to Wall Street.
I’m shocked.
Moving on, the Fed has been doing it’s damndest to keep the economy afloat. They have been practically giving away money via almost no interest loans and that hasn’t done the trick so now they are buying up corporate debt. Something they have in the past been loath to do. Lemme break this down for you in an example I’ll call “The Prodigal Son.”
A son goes to his dad, hat in hand, and says, “Dad, I have tried to do my best but it wasn’t good enough. The businesses I’ve started have gone into debt. I did that to hopefully turn them into something great but it didn’t work out.”
The father might say, “Really? From what I heard you were drinking, gambling, whoring, and blowing coke.”
To which the son might say, “Yeah, well that too and if I don’t come up with 5Gs by Sunday Guido is gonna break my legs.”
Okay, now dad says, “Oh son that’s terrible hears one hundred Grover Clevlands (He’s now on the $,000 bill. Used to be Hamilton.) Let me know if you need more.”
“I need more.”
“Okay, here’s more. What are you going to do with that?”
“None of your fucking business.”
Okay? See how this works?
So to put it in more esoteric terms. The Fed has bought up corporate debt and the Secretary of the Treasury has been given 500 billion to help the economy.
Of course my Prodigal Son example is simplistic. Actually the son would ask Dad to pick up the debt on Guido and lots of other “expenses” (Like “Debbie’s Dallas House of Pleasure and Pain” etc.)
What does the sone do now? He spends that money dad gave him. He buys back stock in his company to make the price go up so he can pay himself a big bonus based on the price of the stock going up. He sees other stocks going up so he buys them to ride the glide. Yeah, good times.
When will it end?
August.
Maybe November. Depends who get elected. If a Democrat gets elected then expect Jm Jordan to all of a sudden discover that MY God the Country is in Debt and What are You Going to Do About It? This followed by any Republicans left in the Senate to scream that they need to hobble Social Security and Medicare more than they already have. Ron Paul will go off about Austrian Economics and diddling with rates. Ted Cruz and some other sap will get concerned about the debt and the need to cut social programs more. Or as Bill Clinton said about when Democrats take office the Republicans complain that they (the Dems) don’t clean up their (the Republican) mess fast enough.
When you get right down to it Mnuchin and Bolton are cut from the same cloth. Cowardly twiddlers who have learned to play the game but have no sense of what the game is being played for. They are only in it for their own power and glory.
Now on to the Osmo 3. This is a cute little gadget. It’s a handheld device for your mobile phone. Like a selfie stick. It has a steady cam feature and it can be paired via bluetooth with said mounted phone. You can look at your phone make a “V” sign and it will start recording in three seconds after that and it will follow you based on facial recognition. This is handy for all those dance move (think Tiki’s Tok) videos you’ve been meaning to put up on social media. The think can be put on a tripod too. It’s really neat. Except, it’s incomprehensible. If you have found the product manual on-line; you have a chance. However, the manual was apparently written by engineers and the marketing department. Both of whom have some idea how this thing works.
The button are described in one section. The use of the buttons is described in another. In this way you have to scroll back and forth to figure out which button they are talking about. (This to me is a dead giveaway that the manual was written by engineers and not humans.)
There is a feature for following you around. It’s called ActiveTrak. Not “follow your face” which would let you know what they were talking about. (This is a dead giveaway that the manual was written by marketing and not humans.)
There is a the “V” feature that allows you to turn on the record button when you are in position in front of the camera. There is also a “palm up” sign. What is that for? Obviously stop. Wrong. There is no “stop” hand gesture, only start and that can be either the palm up or the V.
Then there are the lights. The manual says the lights are red, green, and yellow. Sometimes they blink. All these things mean something. What exactly, you better consult the table elsewhere. What they don’t mention is that most of the time you will see white lights. What are they telling you? I think that it is charging. The manual does tell you that when all the lights go off the unit is fully charged. What they don’t tell you is that another condition can occur when all the lights are off and that is THE THING IS DEAD AS A DOOR NAIL.
Then there is a button marked “M” that is the on/off button. Why M? Who knows.
After balancing your phone and paring it via bluetooth (provided that The Thing Isn’t Dead as a Door Nail) then you can press the “M” button multiple times and thing will happen with the gimbals. One of those things is that the phone will turn down 30 degrees. Why? Who knows. Press the “M’ button somemore and the thing whips your phone around so it is lying prone face up like a dead fish. If you get to read the screen before it goes blank you might discover that this is “Standby Mode.” Otherwise, you just laugh and look around wondering if you are in a Keystone Cops remake. Or Hidden Camera. (Look it up.)
I’ve been told laughingly with these new apps and this gizmo that you have to play with it and that there really aren’t manuals because things change so fast.
The only thing I want to “just play with is” – can you guess? Yeah, that’s right. And for that I don’t need a manual. Otherwise, please. If you want to give me some instructional videos I understand there’s a whole industry that is willing to help there.
Why can’t we get the porn industry to make videos and manuals for tech things? It would be so much better than most of the crap out there.
Okay, enough.
I’ll not be in the field but more likely in my chair, playing with all these super-cool apps asking the question, “What do you think this is for?”
135 Days until the election on November 3rd
215 Days until the Inauguration on January 20, 2021
PS Me and Osmo
Leave a Reply